Vietnam Economic Growth Report — 2025

Interactive analysis of recent performance, outlook and risks

Executive Summary

Snapshot of growth, drivers and immediate outlook

Last updated: 2025

Vietnam's economy sustained strong momentum in 2025, achieving 7.52% growth in H1 and 7.96% YoY in Q2. The expansion is led by services and manufacturing, supported by robust FDI inflows and resilient domestic demand despite elevated global uncertainty.

7.52%

GDP Growth H1 2025 (highest H1 since 2011)

7.96%

GDP Growth Q2 2025 YoY

3.57%

Inflation (June 2025)

US$21.51B

FDI (First Half 2025)

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Key Economic Indicators

Core datasets and comparisons for 2025

GDP Series

Quarterly / mid-year performance

Q1 2025
6.9% YoY
Q2 2025
7.96% YoY
H1 2025
7.52% YoY

Inflation & Labor

Key macro indicators

Inflation
May: 3.24% • Jun: 3.57%
Unemployment
Q1 2025: 2.20%

FDI

Capital flows and confidence

Registered (Jan–May)
US$18.4B (+51% YoY)
Disbursed (Jan–May)
US$8.9B

Forecasts

Cross-institution projections (2025)

  • World Bank: 5.8%
  • ADB: 6.6%
  • IMF: 5.2%
  • Government Target: 8.3–8.5%

Historical GDP Growth (2020–2025 Q1 series)

Year-on-year growth in first quarter (2020–2025)

2025 Growth Forecasts

Institutional consensus vs Government target

Indicator Table (sortable)

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Indicator Value Period Change

Sectoral Analysis

Decomposition and performance drivers

Primary Growth Drivers

  • Services: major contributor
  • Manufacturing: recovery & development
  • Export industries: export backbone
  • Banking: earnings projected +17% in 2025
Retail & Consumption
Retail sales Q1 2025: 1.708 quadrillion VND (~US$66.83B), +9.9% YoY — strong domestic consumption supports services and retail sectors.

FDI & Capital Flows

Monthly breakdown and filters

Month Registered (US$B) Disbursed (US$B)

FDI Trend

Registered vs Disbursed (Jan–May 2025)

Historical Comparison

Contextualizing 2025 against recent years

Trendline

First-quarter YoY growth 2020–2025

Year-by-year notes
2024: 7.1% growth overall. 2025 shows a strong start but may moderate with global headwinds. Long-term fundamentals remain resilient.

Economic Outlook & Projections

Scenarios, risks and recommended mitigations

Near-term Prospects

  • Strong domestic fundamentals support continued growth.
  • Government target (8.3–8.5%) ambitious vs international forecasts.
  • Risks centered on trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty.

Policy Responses

Government measures: diversify export markets, strengthen domestic demand, preserve macro stability and use fiscal space for targeted support.

Challenges & Risk Factors

Key risks and suggested mitigations

Top Risks

  1. Global trade tensions affecting exports
  2. US tariff policies pressuring export-oriented firms
  3. Geopolitical instability raising uncertainty
  4. Overreliance on FDI and inflationary pressures
  5. Need to protect macroeconomic stability while pursuing growth
Mitigation Strategies
Diversify export partners, boost domestic value chains, prudent fiscal policy, and strengthen financial oversight to reduce vulnerabilities.

Sources & References

Cited reports, datasets and links

  • 1
    Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate — tradingeconomics.com
  • 2
    IMF - Vietnam Country Profile — imf.org
  • 3
    World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates — worldeconomics.com
  • Full list includes government statistics (GSO), ADB, FocusEconomics, Vietnam Briefing and local news sources. Use citation buttons to copy links quickly.